We look at three famous crypto traders and analyze their reasons for being bearish on Bitcoin (BTC) to present. Reasons vary, ranging from wave count, horizontal levels, and emotional bias, to comparing their previous predictions.
Wave Count Provides Bearish Bitcoin (BTC) Price Outlook
Well-known trader @cvotrades believes that a downward wave one (or A) is complete, and wave two (or B) has now begun. Both scenarios would lead to more strife before an eventual reversal.
According to the count, the Bitcoin price completed a five-wave upward movement (black) and has begun to decrease. There are two possibilities for the drop. The first suggests that the price has now begun a five-wave downward movement (black). If so, it would likely find support between the 0.5-0.618 Fib retracement support levels at $19,200 – $20,400. Afterward, an upward movement could follow.
The second is that the price is completing an A-B-C correction (black). In this scenario, the price would likely find support at the 0.382 fib retracement support level of $21,528.
An increase above the yearly high of $26,270 would invalidate this count. In that case, the BTC price could increase toward $27,000.
Range High Rejection Could Lead to Drop
@CryptoCred uses long-term ranges to determine the trend’s direction, without using any indicators. Therefore, his prediction states that a close above the Summer Range High (red line) could lead to an increase toward $30,000, while failure to do so could lead to a drop toward the Summer Range Low at $19,400 (white line).
Since the tweet, the digital asset failed to close above the former, thus a fall toward $19,400 seems to be the most likely scenario. A weekly close above $25,000 would invalidate this.
This technical analysis aligns with the wave count from the previous successful crypto trader, @cvotrades.
Emotional Bias Affects Crypto Trader
Finally, the most well-known of the crypto traders among the three is @CryptoCapo_. He gained a sizeable number of followers and fame after correctly predicting the drop from above $40,000 to $20,000. However, since then, he has been adamantly calling for a continued decrease to at least $12,000.
Over the past month, he has greatly reduced his Twitter interaction, and his most recent post was on Feb. 17, in which he explains that this is the “biggest bull trap ever”, and the trend is still bearish.
However, there is no chart to support his claims besides stating that “the move has been artificially pumped with BUSD and USDC.”
Therefore, this seems like a case in which a trader refuses to let go of his previous prediction even though that has been invalidated.
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